Tables 30, 31, and 32 are broken out by the broadest rating classifications (all rated, investment-grade, and speculative-grade). (2), Panama We utilize the Lorenz curve, a graphical representation of the proportionality of a distribution, as one measure of ratings performance, and we summarize this via the Gini coefficient. In addition, it offered a lower interest rate of inflation plus 6.5% to its debentureholders (versus previous inflation plus 12.6%). (1), Michigan The downgrade followed ongoing negotiations on recapitalization or refinancing of the company's debt obligations ahead of its June 2021 interest payment on its senior secured notes. Key Features The company had reduced its interest expense and amortization payments and eliminated its financial covenant requirements, as well as reduced its debt. On Oct. 5, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on China-based (Cayman Islands-incorporated) residential and commercial property developer Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC' after it failed to repay its principal of US$206 million due Oct. 4, 2021, on its senior notes. (5), Macedonia (former Yugoslav Republic of) (2), Bankruptcy, Troubled Credits & Turnarounds Defaults in 2021 came from nearly all sectors, but--consistent with recent years--were heavily represented by two sectors: the energy and natural resources sector (with 14 defaults) and the consumer services sector (with 15 defaults). With the region moving to promote disintermediation, this share of speculative-grade issuers could continue to grow. If the rating on the issuer was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Lower-rated companies also exhibit lower survival (nondefault) rates over time. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. Counterparty credit ratings, corporate credit ratings, and sovereign credit ratings are all forms of issuer credit ratings. (1), Mississippi (2), Republic of Moldova Table 11 presents the average and median times to default from each rating category for all subsequent ratings. These default rates are the same that appear in table 24 and are average cumulative default rates conditional on survival. On June 25, 2021, we withdrew our long-term issuer credit ratings on Washington Prime Group Inc. On March 23, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on U.K.-based global integrated marine support services provider AI Mistral Holdco Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC+'. Default Report. We deem 'D', 'SD', and 'R' issuer ratings to be defaults for the purposes of this study. For instance, the 1981 static pool consists of all companies rated as of 12:00:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1981. (1), Oklahoma Later, on, Sept. 23, 2021, we raised the long-term issuer credit rating to 'B-' from 'D' after the company equitized approximately US$796 million of debt, which was substantially all of its capital structure. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. On Jan. 14, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on HGIM to 'CCC+' from 'SD'. On Oct. 4, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on New Jersey-based debt-issuing vehicle IPC Corp. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' due to a restructuring agreement on the company's second-lien debt. Earlier, on Sept. 29, 2021, we lowered our long-term issuer credit rating on Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. to 'CCC' from 'B', reflecting substantial risk of nonrepayment of the company's debt obligations totaling US$760 million over the next six months.

On Feb. 3, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on the Missouri-based coal producer Peabody Energy Corp. to 'SD' from 'CC' after the company's completed distressed exchange of its senior secured notes due 2022. On Aug. 27, 2021, we revised our long-term issuer credit rating on Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. to 'D'. Aerospace/automotive/capital goods/metals, Forest and building products/homebuilders. Following a year marked by one of the deepest recessions in the past 100 years, 2021 proved to be a year of better-than-expected economic recovery, despite the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. The company also announced the suspension of dividends on its outstanding preferred stock. In this case, however, the 'AA+' figure was derived from a much smaller sample than that for the 'AA' rating. On Oct. 19, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on China-based (Cayman Islands-incorporated) residential property developer Sinic Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CC' following nonrepayment of principal and interest on the company's US$250 million offshore senior unsecured notes due Oct. 18, 2021. One-year Gini coefficients appear to be broadly cyclical and negatively correlated with default rates (see chart 32). (2), Italy (2), Antigua and Barbuda (2), Algeria (1), Wisconsin On Jan. 25, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on AMC Entertainment Holdings to 'CCC-' from 'SD'. DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. On June 10, 2021, we raised our rating on AMC to 'CCC+' from 'CCC-'. Defaults arise disproportionately from low rating categories, and this holds true over longer time horizons (see table 14). (6), Ecuador In contrast, the relationship is slightly more discontinuous when we examine rating transitions at the modifier (the plus or minus after a rating) level, but these variations are likely a result of sample size considerations, and we do not consider them significant (see table 23). For example, 359 defaults were recorded in the five-year pool that began in January 2017, and 352 were rated speculative-grade on Jan. 1, 2017. Euro Area Credit Compass points to a drop-off in Q1 conditions. However, the company's leverage position remained substantial with adjusted debt to EBITDA below 9x in 2021. (15), Eurozone Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. Higher ratings show a negative correspondence with the observed frequency of default. (2), Uganda (7), Azerbaijan These tables can also be constructed for each rating category. Table 10 displays the medians, averages, and standard deviations for the times to default from the original rating. Investment-grade defaulters. (2), Jamaica On June 2, 2021, we raised the long-term issuer credit rating on the company to 'CCC' from 'SD' with a negative outlook after it completed a debt restructuring. Then, at the prompt, dial 866-330-MDYS (866-330-6397) (6), China Moody's Default & Recovery Database (DRD) contains the following data for 550,000 debts and 60,000 global sovereigns and corporate entities, including Real Estate, Insurance, and Financial Institutions. We viewed the transaction as tantamount to a default on the second-lien term loan because the majority of lenders received a 3% discount to par value, which we viewed as less than the original promise. (1), Colorado (2), Trinidad & Tobago This was especially evident during the global financial crisis, when many highly rated banks defaulted within a short time after initial downgrades. (6), Iceland (2), Bangladesh (1), North Dakota On June 9, 2021, we raised our long-term issuer credit rating on Peabody Energy Corp. to 'CCC' from 'SD' after it restructured its issue of senior unsecured notes due 2022. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). Rising stars. In 2021, 69 of the 72 total defaults, or 96%, were from companies originally rated speculative-grade--nearly 8 percentage points higher than the long-term average of 88.5%. On March 1, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on Pronovias to 'CCC' from 'SD'. (6), South Korea In line with expectations, the Gini coefficients decline over time because longer time horizons allow for greater credit degradation among higher-rated entities. The local currency senior unsecured rating is the preferred debt rating for the proxy because it is usually consistent with the issuer credit rating. (1417), Global Idealised expected loss and default probability tables explained This document provides insight into two reference elements that are instrumental to most of Scope's analytical frameworks for secured instruments: Scope's idealised expected loss table; and Scope's idealised default probability table. (992), Financial Institutions The company had failed to make coupon payments on its outstanding U.S. dollar senior notes. The company entered into a forbearance agreement with its lenders dated Aug. 5, 2021. (2), Dominican Republic (1), District of Columbia S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. Often these are issuer-weighted averages. This page provides a central resource for Moody's research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies. On March 29, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on Avation PLC to 'CCC' from 'SD'. On March 2, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on China-based (incorporated in Cayman Islands) company Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC-'. (2), Sweden The exchange was considered distressed because the preferred holders would get less than what was promised. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation because it does not take into account the nature and provisions of any single obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the legality and enforceability of the obligation. These actions reflected the mounting risk that Riverbed would default on its upcoming $77 million term loan B maturity in April 2022, given its continued poor performance through the second quarter of fiscal year 2021. (2), St. Vincent and the Grenadines The company announced that 59.79% of the bondholders of its outstanding US$413 million 8.5% senior unsecured notes due March 23, 2021, accepted the exchange offer, which the company made on Jan. 7, 2021. For instance, in table 32, the weighted average first-year default rate for all speculative-grade-rated companies for all 41 pools was 3.6%, meaning that an average of 96.4% survived one year. Credit Strategy and Standards Index of Reference Documents. This brought the ratio of downgrades to upgrades to a record low of 0.54x (see table 6). (2), Leveraged (1), Maryland On July 12, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Peabody Energy Corp. to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the announcement of a tender offer to purchase up to US$13.281 million of its 8.5% senior secured notes due 2024 and a letter-of-credit revolving facility due 2024 at a discount to par. That is, when default pressure is high, economic conditions are such that the likelihood of companies from across the rating spectrum suffering a more rapid deterioration of credit quality is higher.

For both axes of the Lorenz curve, the observations are ordered from the low end of the ratings scale ('CCC'/'C') to the high end ('AAA'). Default & Recovery Database With default data going back to 1920, the Default & Recovery Database (DRD) allows you to look at how default experience varies at different points in the economic cycle. US Credit Compass signals further deterioration as lending standards tighten. Among the three defaulters initially rated investment-grade, the average time to default--the time between first rating and date of default--was 14 years, with an associated standard deviation of 10.3 years. While the amendments provided additional liquidity and delayed short-term covenant risks, the downgrade reflected the likelihood of weaking liquidity over the course of the next 12 months amid the possibility of a new distressed restructuring or debt exchange. On Nov. 2, 2021, we lowered our issuer credit rating on GTT Communications Inc. to 'D' from 'SD'. The company had filed voluntary petitions under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. For instance, in the three years ended Dec. 31, 2021, 397 nonfinancial companies defaulted, while only 19 financials did. (58), North America (2), Lithuania (6), Guernsey We calculated all default rates on an issuer-weighted basis. The trailing-12-month and annual default rates have become standard measures, but default rates measured over shorter time frames give a more immediate picture of credit market conditions. Riverbed Parent Inc. and Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. defaulted twice, and Peabody Energy Corp. defaulted three times. US$350 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due July 2, 2023, US$25 million floating-rate revolving bank loan due April 25, 2022, US$192.5 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due April 25, 2024, US$77 million floating-rate term bank loan due April 24, 2022, US$525 million 8.875% notes due March 1, 2023, US$1.07 billion floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due Dec. 31, 2025, US$225 million floating-rate revolving facility bank loan due April 22, 2024, 500 million 6.375% senior notes due Nov. 15, 2024, US$500 million 10.50% first-lien notes due April 15, 2025, US$600 million 5.75% senior subordinated notes due June 15, 2025, US$2 billion floating-rate initial B-1 term bank loan due April 22, 2026, US$200 million 10.50% first-lien notes due April 24, 2026, US$1.46 billion 12.00% second-lien notes due June 15, 2026, US$595 million 5.875% senior notes due 2026, US$475 million 6.125% notes due May 15, 2027, US$30 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due May 31, 2022, US$409 million floating-rate first-lien bank loan due June 21, 2022, US$25 million floating-rate term B-2 bank loan due June 21, 2022, US$90 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due June 21, 2023, US$100.6 million floating-rate first-lien B bank loan due Dec. 12, 2022, US$957 million variable-rate first-lien term bank loan due July 31, 2025, US$500 million 6.00% notes due March 31, 2022, US$324 million 6.00% letter of credit facility notes due Dec. 31, 2024, US$194 million 8.50% pay-in-kind notes due Dec. 31, 2024, US$400 million floating-rate term bank loan due March 31, 2025, US$500 million 6.375% notes due March 31, 2025, 550 million 6.625% bonds due Oct. 15, 2022, 400 million 6.375% notes due Oct. 15, 2023, 500 million 2.25% bonds due Sept. 30, 2024, US$209.9 million floating-rate term loan B bank loan due June 14, 2021, US$20.2 million floating-rate priming term bank loan due June 14, 2021, US$10 million superpriming term bank loan due June 14, 2021, 45 million floating-rate revolving credit facility bank loan due Sept. 28, 2023, 154 million floating-rate term loan B2 bank loan due Sept. 28, 2024, 61 million floating-rate term loan B1 bank loan due Sept. 28, 2024, US$100 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due July 30, 2021, US$893 million floating-rate first-lien term B-2 bank loan due Jan. 28, 2022, US$210 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due Jan. 30, 2023, US$175 million last-out first-lien term bank loan due Oct. 31, 2025, US$100 million revolver bank loan due April 30, 2025, US$640 million first-out first-lien term bank loan due July 31, 2025, ARS4.602 billion 16.50% notes series LII due May 9, 2022, US$1 billion 8.50% notes due March 23, 2025, US$400 million 10.00% bonds due July 25, 2026, US$750 million 6.95% notes series LIII due July 21, 2027, US$750 million 7.00% notes series LIV due Dec. 15, 2047, US$700 million 9.25% senior notes due April 15, 2024, US$400 million 7.00% senior notes due Oct. 15, 2022, US$275 million 8.75% notes due June 15, 2025, US$340 million 3.51% term bank loan due Jan 10, 2023, US$750 million 6.45% notes due Aug. 15, 2024, US$350 million floating-rate term bank loan due Dec. 30, 2022, US$650 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due Dec. 30, 2021, US$515 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due March 9, 2024, US$172.5 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due March 9, 2025, US$350 million callable medium-term notes series 2 due Oct. 31, 2026, US$120.569 million 9.125% senior secured second-priority notes due Dec. 15, 2021, US$300 million 5.50% senior notes due Aug. 15, 2022, US$500 million 5.75% senior notes due April 15, 2025, US$122.5 million floating-rate first-lien bank loan due June 1, 2025, US$2.5 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due Jan. 3, 2022, US$167 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due Jan. 3, 2024, US$1.95 billion floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due Nov. 8, 2023, US$450 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due Nov. 8, 2024, US$200 million floating-rate first-out superpriority bank loan due Aug. 10, 2023, US$851 million second-out superpriority bank loan due Aug. 10, 2023, US$40 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due June 14, 2023, US$375 million floating-rate term bank loan due June 14, 2025, US$56.858 million 8.00% notes due Oct. 25, 2024, US$500 million 5.60% notes due Jan. 22, 2025, EUR500 million 6.75% notes due Nov. 1, 2023, US$300 million 7.625% notes due Nov. 1, 2023, EUR85 million 12.75% notes due Sept. 30, 2023, EUR165 million 10.75% notes due Sept. 30, 2023, US$500 million 8.50% notes due Aug. 15, 2021, US$545 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due July 1, 2021, US$82.5 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due July 1, 2021, US$250 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due July 1, 2022, US$88 million 7.00% senior notes due Dec. 31, 2022, US$200 million 10.00% senior secured notes due Dec. 31, 2022, 325 million floating rate senior notes due June 15, 2025, US$410.978 million 6.75% senior notes due Dec. 15, 2025, US$250 million 11.50% senior notes due Dec. 15, 2026, US$260 million 10.50% senior notes due March 31, 2025, US$250 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due May 31, 2023, US$1.77 billion floating-rate term B bank loan due May 31, 2025, US$140 million floating-rate incremental bank loan due May 31, 2025, 750 million floating-rate term B bank loan due May 31, 2025, US$385 million floating-rate first-lien term loan B bank loan due June 1, 2024, US$140 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due June 1, 2025, US$65 million floating-rate first-lien revolving bank loan due June 1, 2022, 142.41 million floating-rate term B2 bank loan due June 22, 2025, 180 million floating-rate term bank loan due Dec. 22, 2025, 184.33 million floating-rate term A1 bank loan due June 22, 2024, 237.58 million floating-rate term B1 bank loan due June 22, 2025, 115.66 million floating-rate term A2 bank loan due June 22, 2024, 60 million floating-rate multicurrency revolving credit facility loan due June 22, 2024, US$300 million 10.00% notes due Dec. 19, 2022, 85 million floating-rate revolving credit facility bank loan due May 30, 2023, 510 million floating-rate term loan B bank loan due May 30, 2024, US$30 million 9.50% notes due July 20, 2023, US$270.04 million 9.50% notes due July 20, 2023, US$300 million floating-rate term B bank loan due Dec. 23, 2024, US$40 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due Feb. 10, 2022, US$315 million floating-rate term bank loan due Feb. 10, 2023, US$305 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due Feb. 6, 2021, US$500 million 7.375% notes due Oct. 4, 2021, US$300 million 7.95% notes due July 5, 2022, US$300 million 11.75% notes due April 17, 2022, US$200 million 12.25% callable notes due Oct. 18, 2022, US$450 million 10.875% notes due Jan. 9, 2023, US$200 million 14.50% callable notes due June 25, 2024, US$1 billion 10.00% senior notes due July 15, 2023, US$396.301 million floating-rate term B bank loan due July 12, 2023, US$100 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due July 12, 2022, US$250 million 5.375% notes due Sept. 13, 2022, US$225 million 7.95% notes due Jan. 19, 2023, US$460 million 6.35% callable notes due Jan. 8, 2024, US$1.345 billion 7.50% notes due June 28, 2023, US$4.68 billion 8.75% notes due June 28, 2025, US$1.45 billion 9.50% callable notes due April 11, 2022, US$850 million 10.00% callable notes due April 11, 2023, US$700 million 10.50% callable notes due April 04, 2024, US$1 billion 11.50% notes due Jan. 22, 2023, US$1 billion 12.00% notes due Jan. 22, 2024.
Rating transition rates may be compared with the marginal and cumulative default rates described in the previous sections. On Dec. 4, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on Form Technologies to 'B-' from 'CCC+'. (2), Zambia Many default studies, including this one, also look at transition rates, which gauge the degree to which ratings change--either up or down--over a particular period. Even at the 10-year horizon, default rates among financial services through 2021 stayed below 3%. *Initial ratings for these companies are those immediately following a prior default in 2021. (1629), Default Studies (59), Micronesia

The differences between each rating category's minimum and maximum times to default are in the last column, under "range."
Based on a firm's non-climate adjusted probability of default (PD) inputs and integral characteristics, the Converter outputs a full set of credit metrics conditional on a range of climate scenarios.

0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 EDF Measure (%) Median Moody's EDF in US Size $30 million and above Jan '05 - Sept '10 Moody's EDF SP12948 A quantitative analysis of the performance of S&P Global Ratings' corporate ratings shows that they continue to correlate with default risk across several time horizons. Broadly consistent with the prior six years, two sectors led defaults in 2021: consumer services and energy and natural resources (with 29 defaults combined, or 40% of the total). (76), North Korea This figure includes new ratings subsequent to prior defaults--such as after distressed exchanges. (2), Kazakhstan As the default rate fell globally, credit quality also showed a net improvement in 2021, with more companies upgraded than downgraded. In table 13, the times to default are from the date that each entity received each unique rating in its path to default. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content.

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