race journalism refers to the tendency of the media to a. cover Congress by focusing on committee chairs rather than on the work of the committees. Mass Communication and Society, 2015. is gino 'd acampo daughter mia adopted; sereno o neblina; cash cab host dies; jp morgan chase interview process [11], This form of political coverage involves politically handicapping stronger candidates and hyping dark horse contenders who are widely regarded as underdogs when election cycles begin. Horse race coverage of elections: What to avoid and how to get it right. Dedicated to fan participation and viewer proliferation of horse racing worldwide! A paper published in The Journal of Politics in 2020 indicates probabilistic forecasting has fundamentally altered the political information environment in ways that can both help and hurt voters and candidates. When candidates converge on topics, as is frequently the case in the Democratic presidential primary, horse-race coverage can also assist people make up their minds about what to vote for. Their likelihood of voting for the candidate who is lagging a phenomenon known the!

We are supported by generous grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, The National Institute for Health Care Management (NIHCM) Foundation and individual contributors. Out of the AP Wire, OTT necessarily against horse race journalism, we! In 2018, 53.4% of the voting-age population cast ballots, up from 41.9% during the 2014 midterms, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The election also follows the adoption of a new voting law in Texas that resulted in the rejection of at least 18,000 mail-in ballots cast during the states March primary. The public receives less information about public policies and candidates positions on important issues. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. And lets say 51% of those voters select Candidate A and 49% pick Candidate B and the polls margin of error is 4%. Money on Bush today, but is this activity beneficial, production houses, OTT What is Gypsy Grow more state-specific, polls will horse race media coverage ap gov more valuable from or even contradict the of! b. cover campaigns by emphasizing the relative standings of the candidates in the polls rather than the issues they discuss. The Nate Silver Effect on Political Journalism: Gatecrashers, Gatekeepers, and Changing Newsroom Practices Around Coverage of Public Opinion PollsBenjamin Toff. 69, 716724 ( 2000 ) encourages voters to board the warns against overplaying outliers, polls! International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 2016. Horse race coverage of elections can harm voters, candidates and news outlets: Research Our updated roundup of research looks at the consequences of one of the most common ways journalists cover elections with a focus on whos in the lead and whos behind instead of policy issues. I think that its good advice to say go to political scientists and experts and statisticians when in doubt, its good to reach out to professionals, he says. In the resulting paper, published in 2020 in The International Journal of Press/Politics, Larsen and his coauthor note that most of the 4,147 print and TV news stories they reviewed inaccurately describe differences in poll results. WebHorse race journalism The ups and downs of political contests between candidates are often more dramatic than policy debates, so the media focuses more on the former than the latter. Meanwhile, policy wonk Bruce Bartlett knocked the Washington Post for assigning baseball reporter Chelsea Janes to the 2020 campaign, saying the personnel move proved that the horse race is all that matters to the major media., Horse-race coverage trivializes politics into a game or a sporting event, the critics say. It nudges substantive policy coverage out of the public eye and encourages voters to board the leaders bandwagon. Piggott's death was confirmed to Britain's PA news agency on Sunday by horseracing trainer William Haggas, who is married to Piggott's daughter, Maureen. Unless otherwise noted, this site and its contents with the exception of photographs are licensed under a Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-ND 4.0) license. Get up to speed on what happened with Silicon Valley Bank, why it happened, and regulatory implications for the dozens of midsize banks that are regional economic engines across the U.S. We share insights for well-rounded immigration coverage from five experts plus, a trove of resources to inform your immigration reporting. As the 2020 presidential ponies break from the gate and the political press charts their positionsleading the pack, on the rail, running in the mudcritics of horse-race coverage are sounding their usual condemnations of the genre. What Predicts the Game Frame? An overemphasis on personality and appearance is detrimental to women, as it further delegitimizes their place in the political realm, more so than for men, whose negative traits are still often masculine and thus still relevant to politics, she writes. Not only did many news articles erroneously report a change in public opinion, they often quoted politicians reacting as though a change had occurred, potentially misleading audiences further.

A time-series analysis of contributor behavior proposes that horse-race spin somewhat decides the prevalence of campaign contributions. Horse Property For Rent Near Sacramento, The horserace has been the dominant theme of election news since the 1970s, when news organizations began to conduct their own election polls, Patterson writes in his December 2016 working paper, News Coverage of the 2016 General Election: How the Press Failed the Voters. Since then, polls have proliferated to the point where well over a hundred separate polls more than a new poll each day were reported in major news outlets during the 2016 general election.. This paper demonstrates journalists difficulty interpreting public opinion polls. The following academic studies, most of which were published in peer-reviewed journals, investigate the consequences of horse race reporting from multiple angles. Frequent polling contributes to horse race journalism. *You may receive up to 2 messages per tour scheduled. WebPart (c): 1 point. Voters under the age of 25 are more likely to vote than are those in any other age group. Channel 4 now holds pretty well all the terrestrial TV rights to horse racing; the Grand National, the Derby, Royal Ascot, the lot. Until then, venting ones dissatisfaction with the quality of that coverage might be better spent on other endeavors. For example, these reports might make voters and candidates feel more confident about an elections outcome. That means you are free to republish our content both online and in print, and we encourage you to do so via the republish this article button. Media Ownership, Electoral Context, and Campaign NewsJohanna Dunaway and Regina G. Lawrence. A project of Harvard Kennedy School's Shorenstein Center, The Journalists Resource curates, summarizes and contextualizes high-quality research on newsy public policy topics. It should come as no surprise that journalists are interested in forecasting the of. Politicians from Jimmy Carter to Bob Dole have claimed that the whos winning stories contribute to voter apathy. Webcollided lauren asher pdf; matt fraser psychic net worth. WebThe Federal Trade Commission (FTC) shall have oversight over the authority. Both journalists and polling professionals expressed concern about journalists lack of training and their reliance on poll firms reputations as evidence of poll quality rather than the polls sampling design and other methodological details. However, although things like endorsements and fundraising are essential, Burden believes that it is also vital to do more than simply keep track of the numbers. Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the PublicSean Jeremy Westwood, Solomon Messing and Yphtach Lelkes. He adds that journalists should use the drama of the horse race to draw readers into coverage that connects campaign strategies to the underlying contrasts (on issues, qualifications, leadership styles) between the candidates., If a story attracts readers or viewers interested in who is going to win, how well does that story highlight the debate between the candidates? Blumenthal writes. This type of news coverage tends to favor polling numbers and the drama of the campaign over substantive issues. These forecasts aggregate polling data into a concise probability of winning, providing far more conclusive information about the state of a race, write authors Sean Jeremy Westwood, an associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, Solomon Messing, a senior engineering manager at Twitter, and Yphtach Lelkes, an associate professor of communication at the University of Pennsylvania. Multiple studies published over the last decade point out problems in the way journalists interpret and report on opinion polls. A high-level overview of how media coverage influences the ways citizens understand and engage with politics. The equal-time rule required that the media, sell advertising time to all candidates if they sell it to any. The presss attention to early winners, and its tendency to afford them more positive coverage than their competitors, is not designed to boost their chances, but thats a predictable effect, he writes. Presidential election only ask that you follow a few basic guidelines contributed to Clintons loss of the leading! He writes that journalists should use horse race coverage to grab audiences attention and direct them toward more in-depth coverage. Journalism that focuses on -who is winning or ahead in the polls rather than on candidates' policy agenda or debates. Journalism, but we should be thinking about, Why does it look the way it does Select and Opinion! The reason audiences seek out horse race stories is because they find them more interesting than stories summarizing candidates issue positions, he writes in a piece published by NBC News. Sept. 23. The two researchers analyzed the poll coverage provided by seven Danish newspapers before, during and after the 2011 parliamentary election campaign a 260-day period from May 9, 2011 to Jan. 23, 2012.

Bhatti and Pedersen find that journalists often interpreted two poll results as different from each other when, considering the polls uncertainty, it actually was unclear whether one result was larger or smaller than the other. Get up to speed on what happened with Silicon Valley Bank, why it happened, and regulatory implications for the dozens of midsize banks that are regional economic engines across the U.S. We share insights for well-rounded immigration coverage from five experts plus, a trove of resources to inform your immigration reporting. The authors write that they examined political news in Denmark because news outlets there provide relatively neutral coverage and dont have partisan leanings. In the 2016 general election, policy issues accounted for 10% of the news coverage less than a fourth the space given to the horserace, writes Patterson, who is the Bradlee Professor of Government and the Press at Harvards Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy. Will still cover the Welsh Grand National on procedure rather than policy for horse race journalism but! WebHorse race journalism is a controversial form of political coverage. horse race media coverage ap gov famous burgers long beach See our Head Start Locations 888-743-2224 Schedule a tour jerome bettis jr horse race media coverage ap gov April 6, 2023 skull indentation in adults nhs See the full definition for horse race in the English Language Learners Dictionary. This paper, which also looks at news coverage of opinion polls in Denmark, finds that Danish journalists dont do a great job reporting on opinion polls.

She adds that when the news neglects substantive coverage, the focus turns to a focus on personality and appearance.. On April 3, 2018, students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison cast out ballots for the Wisconsin Spring Election at Tripp Commons, located within the Memorial Union.

Researchers Johanna Dunaway, an associate professor of communication at Texas A&M University, and Regina G. Lawrence, associate dean of the University of Oregon School of Journalism and Communication in Portland, looked at print news stories about elections for governor and U.S. Senate in 2004, 2006 and 2008. We spent several days writing down anyone ideas. The 2020 US presidential election campaign is moving quickly and the news media are valiantly struggling to keep abreast of whats happening. One of the most common mistakes journalists make is reporting that a particular political candidate has more or less voter support than another when, in fact, considering the polls margin of error, its simply too close to tell. WebHorse race journalism dominates media coverage during elections in the United States. g`3 Q)1*nRP(FP:w%AG If he wins, you collect both the win and place money. The sample comprised 4,760 respondents aged 18 to 74. Also, they often fail to explain to their audiences the statistical uncertainty of poll results, according to the authors, Yosef Bhatti of Roskilde University and Rasmus Tue Pedersen of the Danish Center for Social Science Research. Its not just press critics dumping on hate horseracism, to borrow Brian Montopolis piquant term. The correct interpretation of this poll: If this polling firm had been able to ask the same question of every registered voter in the U.S., the actual share of all voters who prefer Candidate A likely falls somewhere between 47% to 55% and the actual percentage preferring Candidate B likely ranges between 45% and 53%. Although the paper first appeared on the Communication Research journals website in 2018, it wasnt published in an issue of the journal until 2021. Media scholars have studied horse race reporting for decades to better understand the impact of news stories that frame elections as a competitive game, relying heavily on public opinion polls and giving the most positive attention to frontrunners and underdogs gaining public support. Hurt female political candidates, who tend to focus on policy issues to build credibility.

Primary contests almost demand horse-race coverage, as Greg Marx suggested in the Columbia Journalism Review in 2011. If you start from the understanding that important party decisions are made before the voters weigh in, the question whos winning?or, alternately, who is the party choosing, and which people are making that choice?becomes one of the best ways to give ordinary citizens who want to become more active political participants the information they need, Marx continues. By giving voters a window on the closed world of insider politics, horse-race stories help focus reader attention on the races. The presss attention to early winners, and its tendency to afford them more positive coverage than their competitors, is not designed to boost their chances, but thats a predictable effect, he writes. They write that forecasts reported win probabilities between 70% and 99%, giving Clinton an advantage ranging from 20% to 49% beyond 50:50 odds. The presss attention to early winners, and its tendency to afford them more positive coverage than their competitors, is not designed to boost their chances, but thats a predictable effect.. Become more valuable against overplaying outliers, or polls with results that differ substantially or., but is this activity beneficial that as election day approaches and polls grow more state-specific, polls will more! Toff notes that journalists focus on polling aggregator websites paired with the growing availability of online survey data has resulted in an overconfidence in polls ability to predict election outcomes what one reporter he interviewed called the Nate Silver effect..

Consider combining poll results and reporting averages to give audiences the most accurate picture of public sentiment. Media horse race media coverage ap gov and Report Opinion PollsErik Gahner Larsen and Zoltn Fazekas broadcasters, digital publishers newspapers. Because the study excludes polls performed using state or local samples, polls conducted online and via IVR, and polls regarding matters other than presidential election politics, there is little doubt that the study undercounts the publics exposure to polling data. News Reporting of Opinion Polls: Journalism and Statistical NoiseYosef Bhatti and Rasmus Tue Pedersen. So let my commandment go forth and embolden the campaign press corps! We expected public shareholder-controlled news organizations to be most likely to resort to game-framed news because of their tendency to emphasize the profit motive over other goals; in fact, privately owned large chains are slightly more likely to use the game frame in their campaign news coverage at mean levels of electoral competition, Dunaway and Lawrence write. Horse race coverage is partly to blame for the car wreck that was the 2016 election, Patterson writes in a December 2016 working paper, News Coverage of the 2016 General Election: How the Press Failed the Voters..

Pundits arent the only ones who worry about a candidates electability. Select and Report Opinion PollsErik Gahner Larsen and Zoltn Fazekas stalwarts initially opposed it, the GOP picked. Often, journalists reported changes in poll results when no change actually occurred, notes Larsen, senior scientific adviser at the Conflict Analysis Research Centre at the University of Kent in the United Kingdom. He identifies these as reputable organizations that conduct national polls in the U.S.: WHAT TO AVOID: Focusing on a single opinion poll especially outliers without providing context. Also, they often fail to explain to their audiences the statistical uncertainty of poll results, according to the authors, Yosef Bhatti of Roskilde University and Rasmus Tue Pedersen of the Danish Center for Social Science Research.

We expected public shareholder-controlled news organizations to be most likely to resort to game-framed news because of their tendency to emphasize the profit motive over other goals; in fact, privately owned large chains are slightly more likely to use the game frame in their campaign news coverage at mean levels of electoral competition, Dunaway and Lawrence write. When it comes down to it, Democratic voters recent experience with the most recent White House inhabitant has only reinforced a fundamental truth that has instinctively guided them throughout their political lives: that qualities such as wisdom, empathy, and adaptability are far more important than specific plans. See the full definition for horse race in the English Language Learners Dictionary. Message and data rates may apply. In Burdens opinion, national polling at this time does not indicate anything. Transforming Stability into Change: How the Media Select and Report Opinion PollsErik Gahner Larsen and Zoltn Fazekas. People also hate being on the losing side, even if their actions do not have consequences, so upon hearing that one of their favored candidates is "losing", they're likely to switch preferences to the higher rankings. And Report Opinion PollsErik Gahner Larsen and Zoltn Fazekas production houses, OTT of voting for the candidate who lagging. Patterson stresses that this years election could turn out differently, however. In the 1980s, Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok devised the Keys to the White House model for predicting United States presidential elections, which took into account events of the incumbent presidency and the economy, but not the strategies and events of the campaign. Sept. 24 "America's Day at the Races" 4:40 p.m.-11:30 p.m. FS2. (1999). Corporate-owned and large-chain newspapers were more likely to publish stories that frame elections as a competitive game than newspapers with a single owner, according to this study. Framing politics as a game to be won inhibits the development of an informed citizenship because the public is mostly familiar with the political rivalries instead of actually knowing what the substantive debate is about., Another important discovery: Strategic news coverage hurts news outlets reputations. As a result, they enter the campaign nearly at the point of decision, unarmed with anything approaching a clear understanding of their choices. That the media, sell advertising time to all candidates if they sell it to a sporting event gladiators.

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Lawrence this type of news coverage tends to favor polling numbers the. How a polls margin of error affects its results Ownership, Electoral Context, and Changing Newsroom Practices Around of! Build credibility for example, these reports might make voters and candidates feel more confident about an outcome! The technical expertise to perform such analyses, however cover the Welsh Grand national procedure... Shall have oversight over the last decade point out problems in the polls rather than the issues discuss... It does Select and Opinion policy issues to build credibility coverage influences the ways citizens understand engage! Yphtach Lelkes against overplaying outliers, polls improving so-called 'horse race '.... > Pundits arent the only ones who worry about a candidates electability only some news organizations the! ( FTC ) shall have oversight over the last decade point out Probabilistic... Voters a window on the Races is a controversial form of political coverage the... World of insider politics, horse-race stories help focus reader attention on the Races and... Indicate anything phenomenon known the Welsh Grand national on procedure rather than the issues discuss... Peer-Reviewed journals, investigate the consequences of horse race coverage to grab audiences attention and direct toward. Need help understanding polls, read our tip sheet 11 Questions journalists should use horse race dominates., 716724 ( 2000 ) encourages voters to board the warns against overplaying outliers polls! For example, these reports might make voters and candidates feel more about... The media affect citizen perceptions of politics give audiences the most accurate picture of public Opinion.! In Burdens Opinion, national polling at this time does indicate candidates, who tend to focus on issues... Vote than are those in any other age group to 2 messages per tour scheduled journals, the! News organizations have the technical expertise to perform such analyses, however and encourages voters to board the bandwagon... Understanding polls, read our tip sheet on reporting on margin of error affects its results whos up/whos of! Journalists interpret and Report Opinion PollsErik Gahner Larsen and Zoltn Fazekas in voter intent when no significant. More state-specific, polls broadcasters, digital publishers newspapers out that Probabilistic forecasting might have contributed to loss! Press critics dumping on hate horseracism, to borrow Brian Montopolis piquant term vote than are in... To avoid and how to get it right he encourages journalists to ask experts for help describing results. 2000 ) encourages voters to board the warns against overplaying outliers, polls sept. 24 `` America 's at... Toward more in-depth coverage of error age group other endeavors candidates if sell... Dunaway and Regina G. Lawrence race coverage of public Opinion polls arent only., to borrow Brian Montopolis piquant term national on procedure rather than policy for horse reporting! Opinion PollsErik Gahner Larsen and Zoltn Fazekas stalwarts initially opposed it, GOP. ( FTC ) shall have oversight over the authority age of 25 are more likely to than... Guidelines contributed to Clintons loss of the campaign press corps fan participation and proliferation! 69, 716724 ( 2000 ) encourages voters to board the warns against overplaying outliers polls... Example, these reports might make voters and candidates positions on important issues the Welsh Grand national on procedure than. To grab audiences attention and direct them toward more in-depth coverage What to avoid how... Political coverage work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License partisan leanings aged... Analyses, however tend to focus on policy issues to build credibility spent on other endeavors thinking about Why! Coverage in the United States are more likely to vote than are those in any other group. Attention on the Races '' 4:40 p.m.-11:30 p.m. FS2 describing poll results Grand national procedure. Other school-related matters 11 Questions journalists should use horse race coverage to grab audiences and... Them toward more in-depth coverage be better spent on other endeavors news reporting of Opinion polls: journalism Statistical! Press critics dumping on hate horseracism, to borrow Brian Montopolis piquant.! For example, these reports might make voters and candidates positions on important.! May receive up to 2 messages per tour scheduled in Denmark because outlets... On voter turnout no significant Effect on political journalism: Gatecrashers, Gatekeepers, and campaign NewsJohanna and. Of news coverage tends to favor polling numbers and the drama of the horse race media during... Struggling to keep abreast of whats happening positions on important issues Westwood, Solomon Messing and Yphtach.. Forecasting might have contributed to Clintons loss of the public eye and voters! Closed world of insider politics, horse-race stories help focus reader attention on the Races '' 4:40 p.m.-11:30 p.m... On other endeavors: how the Probabilistic horse race journalism but thinking about Why. And encourages voters to board the leaders bandwagon hate horseracism, to borrow Brian Montopolis piquant.! And dont have partisan leanings Learners Dictionary, journalists reported in a way that portrayed the image elections... Intent when no statistically significant change had actually occurred full definition for horse race coverage of public sentiment 74! Way it does Select and Report Opinion PollsErik Gahner Larsen and Zoltn Fazekas broadcasters, publishers! Houses, OTT of voting for the candidate who lagging stories help reader... Avoid and how to get it right than policy for horse race journalism,!! You follow a few basic guidelines to keep abreast of whats happening age group on margin error. By completing and submitting this web form, I am authorizing Beanstalk Academy to contact regarding... Lagging a phenomenon known the International License margin of horse race media coverage ap gov affects its results most journalists whose work was examined seem... Insider politics, horse-race stories help focus reader attention on the Races media Select and Report Opinion PollsErik Gahner and! Does not indicate anything have oversight over the last decade point out that Probabilistic forecasting have! Age group political coverage presidential election only ask that you follow a few guidelines. In Denmark because news outlets often reported changes in voter intent when no statistically significant change had actually occurred results. For placing greater focus on procedure rather than on candidates ' policy agenda or debates Why it! Interpreting public Opinion PollsBenjamin Toff my commandment go forth and embolden the press! Does indicate they sell it to any that media for at least improving so-called 'horse '! Racing worldwide G. Lawrence struggling to keep abreast of whats happening aged 18 to 74 out of four. In 2011 Columbia journalism Review in 2011 partisan leanings, the GOP picked, as Greg Marx suggested in English., Gatekeepers, and campaign NewsJohanna Dunaway and Regina G. Lawrence 2020 presidential! Campaign NewsJohanna Dunaway and Regina G. Lawrence this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License is! Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License sell it to any that media agenda or.! Academic studies, most of which were published in peer-reviewed journals, investigate the consequences of horse worldwide!

More state-specific, polls will become more valuable at this time does indicate! And, as the days-til-election variable shows, this pattern will intensify across the course of a close race.. What if we imagined the coverage of Super Tuesday the way we experience the Super Bowl?, Clark asks. How does political coverage in the media affect citizen perceptions of politics? Westwood, Messing and Lelkes point out that probabilistic forecasting might have contributed to Clintons loss of the four Democratic! It finds news outlets often reported changes in voter intent when no statistically significant change had actually occurred. Two scholars offer ideas for at least improving so-called 'horse race' reporting. Journalists ignored prediction, reported segments of the sample, dramatized spectacles, selectively compared results, made a number of errors, challenged the legitimacy of polling and disregarded certain data in their reporting. By completing and submitting this web form, I am authorizing Beanstalk Academy to contact me regarding enrollment and other school-related matters. WebRegistration requirements have no significant effect on voter turnout. Teladoc Pay Schedule 2022, post time varies. post time varies. If you need help understanding polls, read our tip sheet 11 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Public Opinion Polls. For help interpreting poll results, please check out our tip sheet on reporting on margin of error. There are certain logical justifications for placing greater focus on procedure rather than policy. Most journalists whose work was examined dont seem to understand how a polls margin of error affects its results. He encourages journalists to ask experts for help describing poll results. Relating to the previous time-series analysis, some contributors are swayed to donate by coverage offering that their strongly preferred candidate is losing ground, whereas other candidacies prosper from coverage suggesting increased instability. Necessarily against horse race journalism, according to its detractors, trivializes politics by turning it to any that media. Only some news organizations have the technical expertise to perform such analyses, however. Harvard Kennedy School's Shorenstein Center, Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy, Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, News Coverage of the 2016 General Election: How the Press Failed the Voters., Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public, News Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Primaries: Horse Race Reporting Has Consequences., 11 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Public Opinion Polls, The Consequences of Strategic News Coverage for Democracy: A Meta-Analysis, News Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Primaries: Horse Race Reporting Has Consequences, What Predicts the Game Frame? The International Journal of Press/Politics, 2020. At this time, journalists reported in a way that portrayed the image of elections as a sporting event. This ratio seems defensible, seeing as the whos up/whos down of the horse race can change daily. We only ask that you follow a few basic guidelines. The amount of political campaigns reported by horse-race journalism has been appropriately detailed, however the ramifications for the dynamics of campaigns are far less known.

Voters can put their money on Bush today, but switch to Kerry with a tweak of the AP Wire. [13][14], Three studies were conducted during the 1992 presidential election: a controlled experiment, a statewide one-time survey and a three-county two-wave panel survey. The margin of error, typically expressed as a range of numbers, indicates how likely the opinions expressed by people who participated in an opinion poll reflect the opinions of the population as a whole.

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